2023年年报点评：业绩短期承压，5G消息业务高速发展

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Dream Network Technology (002123) with a current price of 8.30 RMB [2] Core Views - Dream Network Technology reported revenue of 5.24 billion RMB in 2023, a 25.9% YoY increase, but net profit attributable to shareholders was -1.822 billion RMB, a 152.4% YoY decline [2] - The company's performance is under pressure due to declining cloud SMS business, delayed 5G messaging expansion, and high expenses [2] - The cloud communication service business generated 4.81 billion RMB in revenue, accounting for 91.94% of total revenue, with international business revenue growing 181.49% YoY to 606 million RMB [2] - The company's gross margin decreased to 6.28%, down 3.06 percentage points YoY, with cloud communication service gross margin at 6.64%, down 3.17 percentage points [2] - Dream Network Technology is making significant progress in 5G messaging, with partnerships with major terminal manufacturers and coverage of over 800 million terminals [2] - The company is integrating AI technology into its 5G messaging platform, offering intelligent enterprise SMS services like AI mailbox and AI messaging [2] Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company achieved revenue of 1.904 billion RMB, a 13.63% YoY increase, but net profit attributable to shareholders was -1.828 billion RMB, a 146.71% YoY decline [2] - For Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.1 billion RMB, a 6.27% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 9 million RMB, a 19.73% YoY decline [2] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 0.49 RMB, 0.64 RMB, and 0.83 RMB, respectively, with a three-year revenue CAGR of 28.6% [2] Business Segments - Cloud communication business revenue is expected to grow at a 30% CAGR from 2024-2026, with gross margin increasing from 6.6% in 2023 to 9.6% in 2026 [17] - Other cloud business revenue is projected to grow at a 10% CAGR from 2024-2026, maintaining a gross margin of 2.2% [17] - Total revenue is forecasted to grow at a 28.4%-28.8% CAGR from 2024-2026, with gross margin increasing from 6.3% in 2023 to 9.2% in 2026 [17] Industry Outlook - The 5G messaging market is expected to grow rapidly, with penetration rates forecasted at 3%, 5%, and 7% in the mobile SMS market for 2024-2026 [4] - Dream Network Technology, as a leader in 5G rich media messaging, is expected to benefit significantly from the growth of 5G messaging, with a projected 81.2% CAGR in 5G messaging business volume from 2024-2026 [39] - The company's cloud communication service revenue (including traditional SMS and 5G messaging) is expected to grow at 33%, 23%, and 15% from 2024-2026, with gross margin increasing to 16%, 17%, and 18% respectively [39]