Guotai Junan Securities·2024-05-06 01:33Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 120.50, while the current price is 81.96 [2][9]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's performance exceeded expectations, with a structural upgrade continuing and a recovery in market conditions anticipated. The profit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is expected to be around 15% from 2024 to 2026, maintaining the "Buy" rating [7][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.15 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.51 billion, an increase of 12.1% year-on-year. The revenue met expectations, but profits exceeded them [7]. - The company announced a dividend of 1.8 per share for 2023, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 64% for 2024, corresponding to a dividend yield of 2.9% [7]. Sales and Pricing - In Q1 2024, the company sold 2.18 million kiloliters, a decline of 7.6% year-on-year, while the price per ton increased by 2.6%. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in sales starting from Q2 2024, with an overall target for 2024 to achieve flat to positive growth in sales volume [7][9]. Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for Q1 2024 reached a historical high of 40.4%, up by 2.12 percentage points year-on-year, with a decrease in ton cost by 1.0%. The report maintains the profit growth forecast for 2024 at 17% [7][9]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 3.66, 4.16, and 4.71 respectively, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22x for 2024 [6][7].