HUAXI Securities·2024-05-06 02:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.6 billion yuan, an increase of 10.1% [3] - The company has shown resilience in profit performance, exceeding previous expectations due to cost benefits and continuous efficiency improvements [5][6] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company achieved a sales volume of 2.184 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%, with an average price per ton of 4,647.4 yuan, an increase of 2.5% [4] - The main brand, Qingdao Beer, and other brands had sales volumes of 1.322 million tons and 0.862 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 5.6% and 10.4% [4] - The company’s gross profit margin improved to 40.4%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product mix upgrades and reduced cost pressures [5] Cost and Efficiency Improvements - The overall expense ratio for the company was 15.0%, down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a reduction in sales expenses [5] - The net profit margin and the net profit margin excluding non-recurring items were 15.7% and 13.6%, respectively, both showing increases of 2.2 and 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [5] Future Outlook - The sales peak for the beer industry typically occurs in Q2 and Q3, which account for 60-70% of annual revenue, making upcoming sales critical for the company's performance [6] - Anticipated events such as the Olympics and the European Cup are expected to boost beer sales, leading to a positive outlook for the company's performance in the upcoming quarters [6] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 35.707 billion yuan, 37.436 billion yuan, and 38.857 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 3.59 yuan, 3.97 yuan, and 4.34 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23, 21, and 19 [7][9]