Guoxin Securities·2024-05-06 02:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4]. Core Views - The company's first-quarter profit remains stable, with revenue of 34.487 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.62%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.426 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.39% [1]. - The company's total assets grew by 3.03% year-on-year to 6.90 trillion yuan, with loan growth of 5.25% to 3.83 trillion yuan and deposit growth of 0.04% to 4.12 trillion yuan [1]. - The net interest margin continues to narrow, estimated at 1.58%, down 27 basis points year-on-year, leading to a decrease in net interest income by 11.72% to 24.192 billion yuan [1]. - The company maintains stable asset quality, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.25% and a provision coverage ratio of 185.10%, up 3.83 percentage points from the beginning of the year [1]. - The company forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 to be 38.605 billion, 38.686 billion, and 40.497 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -5.4%, 0.2%, and 4.7% [1]. Financial Forecasts and Metrics - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 144.391 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.9% [2]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 0.57 yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.4% [2]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 8.5% in 2024, down from 9.5% in 2023 [5]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to be 5.2x for 2024, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio is projected at 0.37x [1][5].