Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company's net profit for Q1 2024 was 5.871 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.3%. The combined ratio (COR) increased by 2.2 percentage points to 97.9%, which is below expectations but still better than peers [2][4]. - The insurance service revenue for Q1 2024 was 113.843 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. However, the underwriting profit decreased by 48.3% to 2.391 billion yuan due to increased claims from natural disasters and traffic incidents [2][4]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable business operation with a focus on optimizing structure, reducing costs, and managing risks, which should lead to long-term improvement in COR [2][4]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Insurance service revenue is projected to grow from 424.355 billion yuan in 2024E to 552.869 billion yuan in 2026E, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.5% [2][6]. - Net profit is expected to recover from 24.585 billion yuan in 2023E to 35.951 billion yuan in 2026E, with a notable year-on-year growth of 16.1% in 2024E [2][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 1.11 yuan in 2023E to 1.62 yuan in 2026E, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2][6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 8.20 in 2024E to 5.60 in 2026E, suggesting an attractive valuation [2][6]. Market Performance - As of April 29, 2024, the closing price of the company's stock was 9.98 HKD, with a market capitalization of 222 billion HKD [1]. - The stock has a 52-week high of 11.28 HKD and a low of 8.17 HKD, indicating some volatility in its trading range [1].
2024年一季度业绩点评：市场波动及大灾影响下，资、负两端承压