Ping An Securities·2024-05-06 03:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for Li Auto (2015.HK) [3][9] Core Views - The high-end new energy vehicle market is showing strong resilience, with Li Auto's recent adjustments expected to enhance competitiveness [4][6] - The company has experienced a 0.4% year-on-year increase in vehicle deliveries in April 2024, totaling 25,787 units, and a 35.7% increase in cumulative deliveries for the first four months of 2024 [4][6] - Li Auto's price adjustments for its models L7, L8, L9, and MEGA are anticipated to boost sales, with the L6 model already receiving over 20,000 orders within 12 days of its launch [7][8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Li Auto are as follows: - 2024E: 45,287 million CNY - 2025E: 123,851 million CNY - 2026E: 187,987 million CNY - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be 51.8% in 2024, 35.2% in 2025, and 17.8% in 2026 [5][8] - Net profit forecasts are adjusted to: - 2024E: 12,835 million CNY - 2025E: 20,282 million CNY - 2026E: 26,272 million CNY - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 9.7% for 2024, 58.0% for 2025, and 29.5% for 2026 [5][8] - The gross margin is expected to remain healthy, with estimates of 21.0% in 2024, 20.9% in 2025, and 20.6% in 2026 [5][8] Market Position and Strategy - Li Auto is focusing on high-end pure electric vehicles, with a strategic shift to target cities with strong purchasing power [4][6] - The company plans to expand its charging network significantly, aiming to establish 700 high-speed charging stations and 2,000 urban charging stations by the end of 2024 [6][8] - The competitive landscape in the 20-30 million CNY price range remains favorable for Li Auto, with limited competitors in the plug-in hybrid segment [4][7]