宏观与大类资产周报：资产风格难有变化

Economic Indicators - The PMI index has shown a stable performance, with recent breakthroughs attributed to seasonal factors, and seasonally adjusted PMI remains within the two-year fluctuation range[18] - Real estate sales have stabilized around -23% after several months of volatility, indicating limited further decline in sales probability[18] - The current macroeconomic environment is supported by a global pricing inventory cycle, while the credit cycle remains a core issue[19] Market Trends - The stock and bond markets are experiencing a "risk-on" sentiment, but without an expanding credit cycle, the downward flow of money poses challenges[18] - The A-share and Hang Seng indices have risen together, suggesting a need for further analysis of trading dynamics rather than fundamental support[18] - The liquidity bottleneck reflects a persistent risk-off sentiment in asset allocation, favoring interest rate bonds as a superior asset class[19] Policy Implications - The digestion of existing real estate inventory is viewed as a fiscal action, with potential focus on "old-for-new" policies depending on fiscal space availability[18] - The effectiveness of real estate policies can only be assessed retrospectively, as recent trends have been largely driven by internal industry dynamics[18] - The potential for credit spreads to reach historic lows exists, but caution is advised regarding real estate credit investments[19]