Arctech Solar(SH:688408) Southwest Securities·2024-05-06 07:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 129.00 CNY over the next six months [3][12][23]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant revenue increase of 72.59% year-on-year in 2023, reaching 6.39 billion CNY, and a net profit increase of 676.58%, amounting to 345.04 million CNY. In Q1 2024, revenue surged by 122.47% year-on-year to 1.81 billion CNY, with net profit growing by 297.18% to 154 million CNY [23][24]. - The company's growth is driven by increased demand in overseas markets such as the Middle East, Latin America, and India, leading to substantial growth in its mounting bracket business [23][24]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on vertical and horizontal integration in the photovoltaic mounting bracket sector, which has enhanced its global marketing network and supply chain capabilities [23][24]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023 Revenue: 6,390.16 million CNY, 2024E: 9,830.00 million CNY, 2025E: 12,080.00 million CNY, 2026E: 14,430.00 million CNY [4][27]. - 2023 Net Profit: 345.04 million CNY, 2024E: 700.88 million CNY, 2025E: 883.66 million CNY, 2026E: 1,080.41 million CNY [4][27]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023: 2.54 CNY, 2024E: 5.16 CNY, 2025E: 6.51 CNY, 2026E: 7.95 CNY [4][27]. - Valuation Ratios: - PE Ratio: 2023: 42, 2024E: 20, 2025E: 16, 2026E: 13 [4][27]. - PB Ratio: 2023: 5.12, 2024E: 4.20, 2025E: 3.45, 2026E: 2.83 [4][27]. Business Segment Performance - The photovoltaic mounting bracket business generated 5.66 billion CNY in revenue in 2023, a 74.83% increase year-on-year. The revenue from fixed brackets was 2.06 billion CNY (up 26.34%), while tracking brackets generated 3.60 billion CNY (up 124.13%) [23][24]. - The company expects to maintain strong growth in tracking bracket shipments, projecting 15 GW in 2024, 20 GW in 2025, and 25 GW in 2026 [25][26]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a leader in the export of tracking brackets, benefiting from the explosive demand in regions like the Middle East, Latin America, and India. Its overseas supply chain advantages are expected to enhance its market share alongside Chinese EPC companies [12][23][24].