FULING POWER(SH:600452) GF SECURITIES·2024-05-06 07:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 13.42 CNY and a fair value of 14.89 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue and performance in 2023 and Q1 2024, with a revenue of 3.442 billion CNY in 2023, down 3.36% year-on-year, and a net profit of 525 million CNY, down 14.25% year-on-year. The gross margin was 21.00% and the net margin was 15.26%, both showing a slight decrease [2][15]. - The company plans to complete fixed asset investments of 363 million CNY in 2024, with a revenue target of 3.124 billion CNY, slightly lower than the actual performance in 2023. The company is expected to accelerate its transformation by expanding user-side business [2][15]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 3.442 billion CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 3.36%. The net profit was 525 million CNY, down 14.25% year-on-year. The gross margin was 21.00% and the net margin was 15.26%, both showing a slight decline [2]. - For Q4 2023, the revenue was 706 million CNY, down 14.09% year-on-year, while the net profit was 79 million CNY, a significant increase of 1014.62% year-on-year due to the previous year's pandemic impact [2]. - In Q1 2024, the revenue was 739 million CNY, down 10.59% year-on-year, and the net profit was 107 million CNY, down 7.08% year-on-year, with improvements in gross and net margins [2]. Business Segments - The electricity sales and engineering installation segment generated 1.868 billion CNY in 2023, up 1.42% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 8.03%. The electricity sales revenue (including VAT) was 2.096 billion CNY, up 2.83% year-on-year [2]. - The energy-saving service segment reported a revenue of 1.571 billion CNY, down 8.50% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 36.34% [2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its user-side business and has appointed personnel from the State Grid to senior management positions to facilitate this transformation [2][15]. Profit Forecast and Investment Advice - The forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 is 545 million CNY, 552 million CNY, and 557 million CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.7%, 1.3%, and 1.0% [15]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of its electricity operation business and the growth of its energy-saving business, with a projected fair value of 14.89 CNY per share based on a 30.0x PE ratio for 2024 [15].