Guotai Junan Securities·2024-05-06 07:33Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) with a target price of 35.54 CNY, up from the previous target of 33.83 CNY [1][2]. Core Views - The report highlights that CNOOC's performance exceeded market expectations due to rising oil and gas prices, increased production, and lower per-barrel costs. The company's high capital expenditure supports future growth [1][2]. - The report projects an increase in annual EPS to 3.08/3.33/3.43 CNY for the upcoming years, compared to the previous forecast of 2.85/3.12/3.21 CNY [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, CNOOC achieved revenue of 111.468 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 39.7 billion CNY, up 23.7% year-on-year [1]. - The company reported a net production of 180.1 million barrels of oil equivalent in Q1 2024, reflecting a 9.9% increase year-on-year [1]. Price and Cost Analysis - The average Brent crude oil price in Q1 2024 was 83.39 USD per barrel, a year-on-year increase of 2.05 USD per barrel. The average realized price for CNOOC's crude oil was 78.75 USD per barrel, with a slight decrease in natural gas prices [1]. - The report notes a decrease in per-barrel costs to 27.59 CNY, down 2.2% year-on-year, attributed to effective cost control and the orderly advancement of new projects [1]. Capital Expenditure and Growth Prospects - CNOOC's capital expenditure in Q1 2024 was 29.01 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, indicating a commitment to growth through new projects [1]. - The report emphasizes that high capital expenditure will ensure the company's growth trajectory moving forward [1]. Comparative Valuation - The report compares CNOOC's valuation metrics with peers such as China Shenhua, Sinopec, and PetroChina, noting that CNOOC's PE ratio is projected at 9.13 for 2024, which is competitive within the industry [1][2].