业绩短期承压，盈利水平有望逐步恢复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [6][18]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue in Q1 2024, with a year-over-year decrease of 24.52% to 3.44 billion yuan, and a net profit decline of 15.83% [2][17]. - The company is focusing on increasing the proportion of new compound fertilizers, which have a higher gross margin compared to traditional fertilizers. The sales ratio of new fertilizers to traditional fertilizers improved from 1:5 in 2018 to 1:2.5 in 2023, with a future target of 1:1 [3][18]. - The recovery of raw material prices for compound fertilizers is expected to stabilize, leading to a gradual recovery in profitability for the industry [6][18]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading producer of phosphate compound fertilizers in China, established in 1982 and listed in 2014. As of the end of 2023, it has an annual production capacity of approximately 9.83 million tons of various high-concentration phosphate fertilizers [4][18]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.335 billion yuan, down 24.52% year-over-year, and a net profit of 344 million yuan, down 15.83% year-over-year [2][17]. - The gross margin for Q1 2024 improved by 2.25 percentage points to 17.98%, which helped mitigate the decline in net profit [17]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 1.368 billion yuan, 1.617 billion yuan, and 1.893 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.07 yuan, 1.26 yuan, and 1.47 yuan [18]. - The current P/E ratios for the next three years are projected to be 11, 9, and 8 times [18].