销量表现亮眼，产品结构恢复升级趋势

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Beer with a target price of RMB 87.3, representing a potential upside of 24.0% from the current price of RMB 70.4 [2][4]. Core Insights - Chongqing Beer achieved a 5% year-on-year sales growth in Q1 2024, making it one of the few Chinese beer players to report positive sales growth during this period. The high-end product segment saw an impressive 8.3% revenue growth, significantly outperforming mainstream products [2][10]. - The improvement in product structure is attributed to the strong performance of the Lebao brand, which has reinvigorated sales and revenue growth for Chongqing Beer [2]. - A notable decrease in unit costs by 3.3% year-on-year contributed to a significant expansion in gross margin by 2.7 percentage points [2][10]. - Despite the positive trends, the company anticipates additional depreciation costs from the Foshan factory starting in Q2 2024, which may offset some benefits from raw material cost reductions [2][10]. - The report indicates that the operating profit for Q1 2024 grew by 19% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin increase of 2.5 percentage points [2][10]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the projected revenue is RMB 15,742 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.3%. The net profit is expected to reach RMB 1,481 million, with a growth rate of 10.8% [3][8]. - The report outlines a consistent improvement in gross profit margin, expected to be 43.6% in 2024, up from 42.7% in 2023 [3][9]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline to 63.8% in 2024 from 74.5% in 2023, indicating a potential shift in profitability dynamics [3][9]. Market Expectations - The report highlights that despite uncertainties surrounding the sales performance of the Wusu brand, the overall market confidence in Chongqing Beer is expected to improve due to the sustained growth of Lebao and other brands [2][10]. - The financial forecasts have been adjusted, with a decrease in expected revenue and net profit compared to previous estimates, reflecting a more conservative outlook [11].