DAZZLE FASHION(SH:603587) Guoxin Securities·2024-05-06 10:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to maintain stable dividends in 2023, with a projected revenue growth of 10.4% year-on-year to 2,649 million yuan and a net profit increase of 28.4% to 494 million yuan in 2023. However, the first quarter of 2024 is anticipated to face pressure on performance due to a slowdown in macro consumption [12][62]. - The reasonable valuation range has been adjusted to 14.00 - 15.10 yuan, down from the previous range of 16.50 - 17.10 yuan, reflecting a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2024-2025 [6][62]. Financial Forecasts and Indicators - Revenue (in million yuan) is projected as follows: - 2022: 2,400 - 2023: 2,649 - 2024E: 2,728 - 2025E: 3,029 - 2026E: 3,303 - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be: - 2023: +10.4% - 2024E: +3.0% - 2025E: +11.0% - 2026E: +9.1% [5][64]. - Net profit (in million yuan) is forecasted as follows: - 2022: 385 - 2023: 494 - 2024E: 515 - 2025E: 585 - 2026E: 650 - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be: - 2023: +28.4% - 2024E: +4.4% - 2025E: +13.6% - 2026E: +11.1% [5][64]. - Key financial ratios include: - EBIT Margin: 2023 at 25.9%, 2024E at 23.8% - Return on Equity (ROE): 2023 at 13.2%, 2024E at 13.2% [5][64]. Market Performance - The company's market capitalization is approximately 6,063 million yuan, with a closing price of 12.70 yuan. The 52-week high and low prices are 17.35 yuan and 10.98 yuan, respectively [6][12]. - The average daily trading volume over the last three months is 27.50 million yuan [6]. Channel Performance - In 2023, the company experienced growth across all channels, with e-commerce showing a significant increase of 29.5% year-on-year. Direct sales and distribution channels grew by 10.6% and 4.8%, respectively [12][62]. - The performance of individual brands varied, with DA and DZ brands showing stable growth, while RA brand experienced a remarkable increase of 56.1% [12]. Cash Flow and Dividends - The company reported a strong operating cash flow of 7.0 billion yuan, up 41.6% year-on-year, with a net cash ratio of 1.42. The dividend payout for 2023 was 3.8 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend rate of 77% [12][62]. Adjustments and Future Outlook - Due to the weak macroeconomic environment and industry trends, the profit forecasts for 2024-2025 have been revised downwards. The expected net profits for 2024-2026 are 5.2 billion yuan, 5.9 billion yuan, and 6.5 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 4.4%, 13.6%, and 11.1%, respectively [12][62].