Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company Greebo (301260) based on the anticipated industry recovery and strong cost control measures [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.636 billion yuan in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.45%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 132 million yuan, up 58.49% year-on-year [1][5]. - The report highlights a potential operational turning point due to downstream recovery and effective cost management, suggesting that the company may emerge from its current difficulties [3][5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenues for Greebo from 2024 to 2026 are 5.483 billion yuan, 6.406 billion yuan, and 7.484 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 268 million yuan, 491 million yuan, and 627 million yuan [5][6]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 28, 15, and 12 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5][6]. Industry Overview - The report discusses the impact of inventory destocking in 2023, which affected the company's sales, particularly in its ODM business, leading to a revenue decline of approximately 40% in that segment [9][14]. - As inventory destocking comes to an end, there is an expectation of a rebound in demand from downstream retailers, which is anticipated to positively impact the company's performance in 2024 [19][26]. Business Segments - Greebo operates two main business segments: the proprietary brand segment centered around the Greenworks brand, and the customer brand segment, which includes ODM services [27][30]. - The proprietary brand segment has seen a decline in revenue from Amazon, while the ODM segment has also faced challenges due to reduced orders from clients affected by destocking [27][30]. Customer Base and Market Strategy - The company has diversified its customer base, reducing reliance on Lowe's, which was previously its largest customer, and has expanded partnerships with other major retailers like Costco and Amazon [32][38]. - The report indicates that the first major customer in 2023 accounted for only 12% of total revenue, reflecting a strategic shift towards a more balanced customer portfolio [64][86].
2023年行业去库+费用端投入加大导致盈利承压，年下游回暖+强控费用，有望迎来经营2024 拐点