政治局会议点评：政策推动加量提质，聚焦当下重点问题

Economic Outlook - The current economic recovery in China is primarily restorative, with insufficient internal momentum and demand challenges[3] - By December 2023, the economy is expected to show a rebound, with a focus on qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth[3] Policy Direction - The policy focus is on stabilizing and expanding demand to support ongoing economic recovery[3] - Active fiscal policies are to be enhanced for effectiveness, with an emphasis on timely issuance of special bonds and maintaining necessary fiscal spending intensity[3] Monetary Policy - A prudent monetary policy is expected to remain flexible and effective, with potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments[3] - The issuance of long-term special bonds is anticipated in Q2 2024, which may enhance coordination with monetary policy[10] Real Estate Sector - Policies will continue to address real estate risks, promoting a new development model while ensuring housing supply meets demand[10] - The focus will be on local policies to support housing needs and stabilize the market[10] Investment Recommendations - The stock market may benefit from ongoing policy support, with attention to liquidity and price indicators such as M1 and PPI[3] - The bond market may face pressure in the long term as the economy stabilizes, despite short-term rate declines[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy implementation falling short of expectations and external economic conditions adversely affecting exports[12]