原油及聚酯产业链月报（2024年5月）：原油需求承压，聚酯及下游或利润回升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on upstream resources, oil services, and stable targets within the industry [41]. Core Insights - Oil prices are expected to remain relatively high, benefiting companies with upstream resource attributes such as China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [87]. - The oil service industry is projected to maintain stable capital expenditure, with domestic continuous reserve increases and production [87]. - The downstream textile and apparel industry is anticipated to recover in demand, favoring integrated companies with strong hydrogenation cracking capabilities [87]. Oil Price Review and Outlook - Oil prices are projected to fluctuate between $60 and $100 per barrel in 2024, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics [20][19]. - Brent crude oil is expected to average $89 per barrel in 2024, with a potential peak of $90 in Q2 [16][20]. - Global oil supply is forecasted to increase, with OPEC+ extending voluntary production cuts until Q2 2024 [5][19]. Commodity, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates - The U.S. economy shows resilience, but April's manufacturing PMI weakened, indicating potential downward pressure on interest rates [87]. - Commodity prices are expected to diverge, with oil and precious metals supported by supply constraints and safe-haven demand [87]. Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry is experiencing pressure from raw material prices, with the PX-PTA-polyester chain profit margins declining [65][70]. - The integrated profit of the polyester chain is approximately 168 CNY per ton, down from previous months [65]. Conclusion and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong upstream resource attributes and stable oil service firms, as well as integrated refining and chemical companies benefiting from high oil prices [87].