ESTUN AUTOMATION(002747) 东吴证券·2024-05-07 04:05Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [1] Core Views - Revenue meets expectations, benefiting from the acceleration of domestic substitution in industrial robots [1] - Industrial robot sales grew by 40% YoY in 2023, significantly higher than the industry growth rate of 0.4% [3] - Domestic substitution rate for industrial robots reached 45.1% in 2023, up 9.6 percentage points YoY [3] - Revenue from industrial robots reached 3.61 billion yuan, up 26.5% YoY, with market share increasing to 8.5%, second only to Fanuc [3] - Automation core components and motion control systems revenue reached 1.04 billion yuan, up 1.4% YoY [3] - Manufacturing PMI rebounded above the boom-bust line in March, supporting continued high revenue growth in 2024 [3] - Contract liabilities at the end of Q1 2024 were 314 million yuan, up 27.9% YoY, indicating strong order backlog [3] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue was 4.652 billion yuan, up 19.9% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 135.04 million yuan, down 18.8% YoY [5] - Q4 2023 revenue was 1.43 billion yuan, up 6.5% YoY and 44.9% QoQ, with a net loss of 5.23 million yuan [5] - Q1 2024 revenue was 1.0 billion yuan, up 1.7% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.53 million yuan, down 84.8% YoY [5] - Gross margin in 2023 was 31.9%, down 1.9 percentage points YoY, while net margin was 2.9%, down 1.9 percentage points YoY [3] - Q1 2024 gross margin was 32.6%, down 1.0 percentage point YoY, and net margin was 0.9%, down 3.6 percentage points YoY [3] - Operating expenses ratio in 2023 was 29.4%, up 1.7 percentage points YoY, driven by increased sales and R&D expenses [3] Industry and Market Position - The industrial robot industry is in a phase of intense competition, with leading companies expected to gain higher market share due to superior supply chain and management capabilities [3] - The "Robot+" application action plan aims to double the density of robots in manufacturing by 2025 compared to 2020, indicating significant growth potential for industrial robots [3] - The company is a leader in domestic industrial robots and is well-positioned to benefit from the trend of replacing human labor with robots and domestic substitution [3] - The company's welding robot business, led by Cloos, achieved revenue of 180 million yuan and net profit of 10.66 million yuan in 2023, with potential for further growth [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow to 5.968 billion yuan in 2024, 7.486 billion yuan in 2025, and 9.445 billion yuan in 2026 [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 204.24 million yuan in 2024, 306.42 million yuan in 2025, and 425.85 million yuan in 2026 [6] - EPS is projected to be 0.23 yuan in 2024, 0.35 yuan in 2025, and 0.49 yuan in 2026 [6] Valuation Metrics - P/E ratio based on current price and latest diluted EPS is 70.84x for 2024, 47.22x for 2025, and 33.98x for 2026 [6] - P/B ratio based on current price is 4.98x for 2024, 4.51x for 2025, and 3.98x for 2026 [10] - ROE is expected to improve from 5.00% in 2023 to 11.71% in 2026 [10]