Tsingtao Brewery(SH:600600) Tianfeng Securities·2024-05-07 06:18Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 10.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.597 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.06% [1] - The sales expense ratio decreased, and cost improvements were realized, contributing to a net profit margin increase of 2.2 percentage points to 16% [3] - Despite a high base, the company maintains an upward trend in the proportion of mid-to-high-end products, indicating a positive structural upgrade [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 sales volume was 2.184 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%, while the revenue per ton increased by 2.6% [2] - The main brand's sales volume was 1.322 million kiloliters, down 5.6%, but its market share increased by 1.2 percentage points to 60.5% [2] - The company expects revenue growth rates of 4%, 3%, and 3% for 2024-2026, with net profit growth rates of 18%, 15%, and 12% respectively [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 35.19 billion yuan, 36.41 billion yuan, and 37.56 billion yuan respectively [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 5.02 billion yuan, 5.75 billion yuan, and 6.42 billion yuan respectively [4] - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 24X, 21X, and 19X respectively [3] Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of 61.78 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 61.39 billion yuan [5] - The current price of the stock is 87.12 yuan, with a 52-week high of 112.15 yuan and a low of 67.56 yuan [5]