Tianfeng Securities·2024-05-07 07:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [6][14]. Core Views - The company's Q1 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 10.15 billion yuan (down 5.19% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.597 billion yuan (up 10.06% year-on-year) [1][3]. - The sales expense ratio decreased, and cost improvements were realized, contributing to a net profit margin increase of 2.2 percentage points to 16% [3]. - Despite a high base, the company is expected to stabilize sales in subsequent quarters, which will enhance cost elasticity [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2024 sales volume was 2.184 million kiloliters (down 7.6% year-on-year), with a ton revenue increase of 2.6% [2]. - The main brand's sales volume was 1.322 million kiloliters (down 5.6%), while the mid-to-high-end segment saw a sales volume of 960,000 kiloliters (down 2.4%) [2]. - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 4%, 3%, and 3% for 2024-2026, with corresponding revenue amounts of 35.2 billion, 36.4 billion, and 37.6 billion yuan [3][4]. Profitability Forecast - The report projects net profit growth rates of 18%, 15%, and 12% for 2024-2026, with net profit amounts of 5 billion, 5.8 billion, and 6.4 billion yuan [3][4]. - The expected price-to-earnings ratios (PE) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 24X, 21X, and 19X, respectively [3]. Key Financial Metrics - The company's total revenue for 2023 is projected at 33.94 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.49% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 4.27 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 15.02% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 3.68 yuan, with a PE ratio of 23.67 [4]. Market Position - The company continues to see an upward trend in the proportion of mid-to-high-end products, indicating a positive structural upgrade [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of brand positioning and product upgrades, with new endorsements expected to enhance market presence [3].