Guotai Junan Securities·2024-05-07 08:02Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a target price of 23.54 CNY, unchanged from the previous rating [1][2]. Core Views - The company's non-net profit increased significantly, aligning with expectations, and the outlook for the second half of the year is optimistic. The report emphasizes the potential for a super bull market in oil transportation [1][2]. - The report highlights that the oil transportation industry's capacity utilization has reached a threshold, and supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve over the coming years, leading to a sustained rise in profitability [1][2]. - The report suggests that investors should focus on the central trend of short-term fluctuations and that contrarian investments will enhance the investment experience [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.2 billion CNY, a 40% year-on-year increase, meeting expectations. The report notes that the profit from non-operating activities exceeded 200 million CNY [1][2]. - The report forecasts a net profit of 3.35 billion CNY for 2024, with projections of 7.2 billion CNY for 2025 and 8.58 billion CNY for 2026 [1][2]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 22.09 billion CNY in 2023 to 28.32 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting an 18% increase [2]. - The operating profit (EBIT) is expected to rise significantly from 5.44 billion CNY in 2023 to 10.18 billion CNY in 2024 [2]. Market Outlook - The report indicates that the oil transportation market is expected to see continued growth, with a favorable supply-demand balance anticipated in the coming years. The company is positioned to benefit from this trend, with shareholder returns expected to improve [1][2]. - The report also notes that the company's management has implemented equity incentives for executives, reflecting confidence in the upward trend of the market [1][2].