GF SECURITIES·2024-05-07 08:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - A / Buy - H" [1] Core Views - In Q1, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 14.7% year-on-year, but its performance stability is better than peers. The company reported a net profit of 15.88 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 14.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 39.0%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 16.46 billion yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year but up 9.3% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The coal segment's profit declined, while the transportation and power generation segments saw profits increase by over 10% year-on-year. In Q1, the company produced 81.3 million tons of commodity coal, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, and sold 80.3 million tons, up 1.1% year-on-year. The revenue per ton of self-produced coal was 533 yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 297 yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year [2] - The company's operational model is robust, with expected growth in coal and electricity businesses through internal projects and acquisitions. The dividend payout ratio has significantly increased since 2017, with a planned cash dividend ratio of no less than 60% for 2022-2024, and a proposed dividend ratio of 75.2% for 2023 [2] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 332.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.9% from 2023. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 61.41 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.9% from 2023. The EPS for 2024 is estimated at 3.09 yuan per share [3] - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 is forecasted to be 114.66 billion yuan, with a P/E ratio of 12.80. The ROE is expected to be 14.2% [3]