Guotai Junan Securities·2024-05-07 08:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Shenhua (601088) with a target price of 46.20 CNY, up from the previous target of 43.12 CNY [3][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 87.647 billion CNY in Q1 2024, a slight increase of 0.7%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 15.884 billion CNY, down 14.66%, aligning with market expectations [2][3]. - The coal sales continue to grow, with a total coal production of 81.3 million tons in Q1 2024, up 1.5%, and sales of 117 million tons, up 8.8%, increasing market share despite a national decline in coal production [2][3]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout, with dividend rates of 91.8%, 100%, 72.7%, and 75% from 2020 to 2023, indicating strong profitability and stability [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 328.163 billion CNY, a decrease of 4% from 2023, with net profit expected to be 61.158 billion CNY, a 2% increase [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024 is 3.08 CNY, with a slight increase to 3.09 CNY in 2025 and 3.19 CNY in 2026 [2][3]. - The company’s operating profit margin is expected to decline to 23.8% in 2024 from 26.5% in 2023, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 14.5% [2][3]. Market Data - The stock price has fluctuated between 27.01 CNY and 41.90 CNY over the past year, with a total market capitalization of 774.872 billion CNY [4][5]. - The average daily trading volume is approximately 34.80 million shares, with an average daily trading value of 1.34594 billion CNY [4][5]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12.98, with a projected PE of 12.67 for 2024 [2][3]. - The dividend yield is estimated at 5.8% for 2023, expected to rise to 6.3% in 2024 [2][3].