KINGSINO(002548) 华安证券·2024-05-07 09:00Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, indicating a downward adjustment from previous assessments [6][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.04 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 1.7%. However, it faced a net loss of 660 million yuan, contrasting with a net profit of 199 million yuan in 2022 [6][8]. - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.05 billion yuan, a decline of 3.6% year-on-year, and a net loss of 52 million yuan [6][8]. - The report highlights a significant reduction in pig farming costs, which fell to 15.7 yuan per kilogram in Q1 2024, alongside stable growth in the feed business [6][8]. - The company aims to achieve a pig output of 1.1 to 1.2 million heads in 2024, supported by improved operational efficiencies and cost management strategies [6][8]. Financial Summary - The company’s financial projections for 2024 to 2026 indicate a revenue increase to 4.62 billion yuan in 2024, 5.73 billion yuan in 2025, and 6.54 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 14.4%, 24.0%, and 14.2% respectively [9][11]. - The net profit is expected to recover to 52 million yuan in 2024, followed by 385 million yuan in 2025 and 345 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a significant turnaround from the previous losses [9][11]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 3.3% in 2023 to 9.8% in 2024, and further to 14.7% in 2025, indicating enhanced profitability [9][11]. Operational Insights - The company has implemented various measures to reduce pig mortality rates and improve key production metrics, which have shown continuous improvement [6][8]. - The feed business generated a revenue of 2.6 billion yuan in 2023, marking a year-on-year growth of 12.8%, with external sales volume reaching 680,100 tons, up 16.7% [6][8]. - The company’s breeding stock remains stable at 60,000 to 65,000 sows, with a PSY (Pigs per Sow per Year) of 25.5 heads [6][8].