2024年财政政策展望：扩张何去？融资何从？

Fiscal Policy and Economic Impact - The fiscal policy framework includes four accounts and three levels: macro-control, real estate market, and state-owned economy[2] - Broad fiscal revenue in 2023 reached 38.1 trillion yuan, accounting for 30.2% of GDP, with 70.3% coming from taxes and social security contributions[13] - Broad fiscal expenditure is expected to account for 36.2% of GDP in 2024, up 0.2 percentage points from 2023, driven by aging population and the need for stable growth[28] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment is expected to grow by 7.7% in narrow terms and 10% in broad terms in 2024, supported by special bonds and additional treasury bonds[36] - Over half of the 1 trillion yuan in special bonds and additional treasury bonds issued in 2023 will directly support key infrastructure projects, particularly in water conservancy[36] - Local debt risk mitigation has accelerated, increasing the urgency for central government to take on the responsibility of stabilizing new infrastructure investment[34] Manufacturing and Consumer Spending - Fiscal support for manufacturing investment is expected to increase by 800 billion yuan, potentially boosting annual manufacturing investment growth by 9.5%[47] - A 200 billion yuan subsidy for durable goods like cars, home appliances, and home furnishings is expected to stimulate an additional 300 billion yuan in consumer demand, contributing 0.8 percentage points to retail sales growth[52] - The real estate market adjustment has significantly dragged down consumer demand, particularly for durable goods, necessitating fiscal subsidies to stimulate consumption[48] Fiscal Revenue and Debt Risks - Low inflation and a high base effect may lead to a significant shortfall in general public budget revenue, potentially requiring an additional 1 trillion yuan in treasury bond issuance to cover the gap[94] - Government fund revenue, heavily reliant on land sales, is expected to decline further in 2024, with land sales revenue potentially falling short of the budget by 4000 billion yuan[115] - The fiscal deficit is expected to widen due to the dual pressures of declining revenue and increasing expenditure, necessitating careful balancing of debt financing efficiency and scale[29]