Jianghai Securities·2024-05-07 09:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.15 billion yuan in Q1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.19%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.597 billion yuan, an increase of 10.06% year-on-year [1] - The overall sales volume in Q1 2024 was 2.184 million kiloliters, down 7.6% year-on-year, with the main brand, Qingdao Beer, experiencing a 5.6% decline in sales volume [1] - The company has successfully improved its profitability, with a gross margin of 40.44%, up 2.12 percentage points year-on-year, driven by an increase in the sales proportion of high-end products and a decrease in raw material costs [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Data - Current price: 81.96 yuan - Target price: 93.92 yuan - Target period: 6 months - Total shares: 1,364.20 million [1] Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue: 10.15 billion yuan, down 5.19% year-on-year - Q1 2024 net profit: 1.597 billion yuan, up 10.06% year-on-year - Q1 2024 gross margin: 40.44%, up 2.12 percentage points year-on-year - Q1 2024 net profit margin: 15.99%, up 2.23 percentage points year-on-year [1][3] Sales and Pricing - Q1 2024 sales volume: 2.184 million kiloliters, down 7.6% year-on-year - Q1 2024 average price per ton: 4,647.44 yuan per kiloliter, up 12.00% quarter-on-quarter and 2.58% year-on-year - High-end product sales volume accounted for 43.96% of total sales, up 2.32 percentage points year-on-year [1][3] Future Projections - Expected revenue for 2024-2026: 35.98 billion yuan, 37.996 billion yuan, and 39.937 billion yuan respectively - Expected net profit for 2024-2026: 5.125 billion yuan, 5.747 billion yuan, and 6.226 billion yuan respectively - Corresponding P/E ratios for 2024-2026: 22X, 19X, and 18X [1][3]