MGM CHINA(02282) 东吴证券国际·2024-05-07 12:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MGM China (2282.HK) [1] Core Views - The company's total gaming revenue for Q1 2024 reached HKD 9.45 billion, recovering to 140.8% of the same period in 2019, with VIP and mass market revenues at HKD 1.50 billion and HKD 7.95 billion respectively, recovering to 55.8% and 197.6% of 2019 levels [2][3] - The company's overall market share increased from 9.1% in Q1 2019 to 17.0% in Q1 2024, with a slight month-on-month increase in market share noted in March and April 2024 [2] - The adjusted property EBITDA for Q1 2024 was HKD 2.51 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by approximately 14%, and the EBITDA margin improved to 30.3% [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at HKD 24.68 billion, with a significant increase to HKD 33.40 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 369% [2] - The adjusted property EBITDA is expected to rise from HKD 7.24 billion in 2023 to HKD 9.85 billion in 2024, reflecting a 117% increase [2] - The report forecasts earnings per share to increase from HKD 0.69 in 2023 to HKD 1.50 in 2024 [2] Business Expansion - MGM China is focusing on expanding its non-gaming business, including the addition of villas and suites in Macau and new dining services that have been well-received by consumers [3] - The company is collaborating with renowned director Zhang Yimou to create a resident show titled "MGM 2049" and is constructing a world-class museum in Macau to enhance cultural experiences for consumers [3] Market Position and Strategy - The management believes that the introduction of smart gaming tables by other operators will not significantly impact MGM China's competitive advantage, as the company has been utilizing smart tables since 2016 and has accumulated substantial consumer data [3] - The report projects that the company's adjusted property EBITDA margin will remain high, between 27% and 30%, throughout 2024 [3]