JIN LEI(SZ:300443)2024-05-08 01:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating, expecting the company's stock price to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next 6-12 months [4][34]. Core Views - The company reported a 17% year-on-year growth in 2023, with total revenue reaching 1.946 billion RMB and a net profit of 412 million RMB, reflecting a 16.85% increase [34]. - In Q1 2024, the company experienced a significant decline in net profit, down 70.80% year-on-year, attributed to the transitional phase of new production capacity [34]. - The wind power sector remains stable, with a 6.65% increase in product shipments and a 1.47% rise in revenue from wind power products [34]. - The company plans to invest 2.651 billion RMB in a new project to enhance forging capacity, which is expected to improve competitiveness and profitability in the long term [34]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023-2026 are as follows: 1.946 billion RMB in 2023, 2.308 billion RMB in 2024, 3.160 billion RMB in 2025, and 3.857 billion RMB in 2026, with growth rates of 7.4%, 18.6%, 36.9%, and 22.0% respectively [2][9]. - Net profit is projected to grow from 412 million RMB in 2023 to 876 million RMB in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 16.8%, 23.9%, 37.3%, and 23.9% [2][9]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 1.27 RMB in 2023 to 2.67 RMB in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 15.2 to 7.2 over the same period [9][34]. Operational Insights - The company is in a transitional phase with new production capacity, which has temporarily impacted profitability, but long-term growth prospects remain positive [34]. - The gross margin for the wind power segment improved by 3.16 percentage points to 33.50% due to a decrease in raw material prices [34]. - The company’s operational cash flow is projected to improve significantly, with expectations of 500 million RMB by 2026 [2].