NONFEMET(SZ:000060) Guolian Securities·2024-05-08 02:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 5.11 yuan, based on a 20x PE for 2024 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company benefited from rising metal prices, leading to improved profitability in Q1 2024, with a sales gross margin of 4.65%, up 0.16 percentage points year-on-year [3][25]. - The company plans to produce 263,100 tons of lead and zinc metal in 2024, with specific targets for copper and silver production as well [3]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 960 million yuan, 1.13 billion yuan, and 1.36 billion yuan respectively, with EPS projected at 0.26 yuan, 0.30 yuan, and 0.36 yuan [3][4]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue for 2023 was 65.60 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.42%, while net profit was 688 million yuan, a decrease of 43.27% [28]. - The company’s operating income is projected to grow at a decreasing rate from 24.50% in 2022 to 2.27% by 2026 [4]. - The financial metrics include an EBITDA of 3.14 billion yuan for 2023, with a forecasted increase to 4.19 billion yuan by 2026 [4]. Production and Cost Management - The company’s production of lead and zinc metal in 2023 was 275,600 tons, with a notable increase in copper production by 59.49% year-on-year [13]. - The period expense ratio decreased to 1.98% in Q1 2024, down 2.50 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating improved cost management [14].