新型电力体系绿色市场篇：风险与机遇并存，静待政策拐点

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Maintain" investment rating for the power industry, specifically focusing on the green power market [1] Core Views - The green power market in China is transitioning from guaranteed purchase at fixed prices to market-based bidding, leading to concerns about the profitability of wind and solar projects due to price discounts and increased auxiliary service costs [1] - The contradiction between the declining profitability of green power projects and the accelerating dual-carbon goals is intensifying, necessitating policy adjustments to ensure the realization of energy transition targets [1] - The report suggests that the green power market in China is at a critical juncture, with potential policy changes expected to address the current challenges [1] Domestic Market Analysis - In 2023, the proportion of market-based transactions for wind and solar power reached 47.3%, an increase of 8.9 percentage points year-on-year, with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) aiming for full market participation by 2030 [1] - The average market price for green power in Shandong is generally 0.05-0.20 yuan/kWh lower than the coal benchmark price, and the curtailment rates for wind and solar power exceeded 6% in February 2024 [1] - The domestic green certificate price is currently around 20-30 yuan/MWh, significantly lower than in Europe and the US, indicating room for environmental value realization [1] US Market Analysis - The US green power market is characterized by a mandatory Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) and a voluntary market, with the RPS setting mandatory requirements for green power procurement and sales [1] - The US green power revenue structure includes energy prices, production tax credits (PTC), investment tax credits (ITC), and environmental value, with PTC and ITC extended by the Inflation Reduction Act [1] - The US green certificate market is divided into mandatory and voluntary segments, with mandatory certificates priced between 1-50 USD/MWh for non-solar and 150-680 USD/MWh for solar, while voluntary certificates are priced between 1-10 USD/MWh [1] European Market Analysis - The European green power market is supported by high green power penetration rates, with the EU Green Certificate (GO) system complementing national policies [2] - The European green power revenue structure includes energy prices, national subsidies, and environmental value, with subsidies gradually being phased out in countries like Germany and the UK [2] - The European green power PPA market has been growing, with the P25 PPA price in Q1 2024 reaching approximately 81 EUR/MWh, and the GO certificate price stabilizing at 5-6 EUR/MWh in 2023 [2] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in flexibility transformation, such as Qingda Environmental Protection, and pure thermal power operators like Huadian Power International and Anhui Energy [2] - Long-term recommendations include comprehensive power companies like State Power Investment Corporation, China Resources Power, and Huaneng Power International, given the trend towards electrification and clean energy [2] - The report highlights the need to monitor policy changes in the green power operator sector, as the industry faces both risks and opportunities [2]