Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 6.26 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 5.69 CNY [40][23]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2024, achieving a revenue of 2.127 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 1.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 209 million CNY, significantly up from 26 million CNY in the same period last year [54]. - The company is focusing on the construction of the Lufeng Jiahuwan clean energy base, with the second phase expected to be operational by early 2025, which will increase its thermal power capacity by 57.6% [54][22]. - The average on-grid electricity price is projected to decline by 7.0% in 2024, but the company has implemented a flexible coal procurement strategy to mitigate the impact of price fluctuations [54][22]. Financial Summary - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 10.275 billion CNY in 2023 to 15.320 billion CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13% [3][22]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 889 million CNY in 2023 to 1.514 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3][23]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.41 CNY in 2023 to 0.70 CNY in 2026, indicating improved profitability [3][23]. Business Assumptions - The company anticipates stable operating hours for its thermal power plants, with projected electricity generation of 211.94 billion kWh in 2025 and 316.06 billion kWh in 2026 [21][56]. - Fuel procurement costs are expected to decrease by 8.0% in 2024, followed by a 2.0% decline in 2025, which will positively impact the company's margins [21][56]. Valuation Metrics - The report estimates the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to be 13.64 in 2024, decreasing to 8.18 by 2026, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [3][23]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 7.3% in 2023 to 10.8% in 2026, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [3][23].
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