GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2024-05-08 03:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [2][6] Core Views - Xiaomi's smartphone shipments are expected to recover strongly, with Q1 2024 shipments projected to reach 40.8 million units, a year-on-year increase of 34% [1] - The company aims to achieve a total smartphone shipment of 166 million units in 2024, representing a 14% year-on-year growth [2] - Xiaomi's automotive sales have exceeded expectations, with the SU7 model achieving a lock order of 88,063 units as of April 30, 2024 [1] - The company is focusing on a "human-vehicle-home ecosystem" strategy to enhance user experience and profitability in its automotive business [1] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Xiaomi Group are estimated at 330.8 billion, 386.6 billion, and 431.8 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 22%, 17%, and 12% [2][17] - Non-GAAP core net profit is expected to be 27 billion, 29.3 billion, and 31.8 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 1%, 9%, and 9% respectively [2][17] - The report projects a target price of 23 HKD for Xiaomi Group based on a 15x P/E ratio for core business and a 2x P/S ratio for automotive [2][6] Business Segments - The AIoT and internet segments are expected to show stable growth, with Q1 2024 AIoT revenue projected to turn positive year-on-year, driven by key product categories [2] - The internet business is anticipated to continue growing, supported by an increase in MIUI users [2] - The automotive segment is projected to contribute significantly to revenue, with a target of over 100,000 units delivered in 2024 [1][2]