费用管控成效凸显，等待融合作用发挥

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating, expecting the stock to outperform the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [10][12]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 36.279 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.57%. The express delivery business generated 3.228 billion yuan, up 18.19%, while the courier business saw a decline of 11.22% to 272.8 million yuan. The gross margin decreased by 1.63 percentage points to 8.57% [30][58]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the direct express delivery sector in China, with ongoing integration with JD Logistics expected to enhance growth and profitability [4][30]. - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 1.07, 1.39, and 1.60 yuan, respectively, with a target price of 19.26 yuan based on an 18x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2024 [4][27][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company operates in the high-end segment of the express delivery market, competing with major players like JD Logistics and SF Express. The market is characterized by a dual oligopoly structure [49][55]. 2. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a net profit of 746 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.32%, with a non-recurring net profit of 568 million yuan, up 76.77% [30][68]. - The company has effectively reduced its operating expenses by 13.71% year-on-year, with a notable decrease in management expenses by 19.75% [31][68]. 3. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The report anticipates that the company's revenue will continue to grow, with projections of 44.739 billion yuan in 2024, 51.164 billion yuan in 2025, and 56.130 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 23%, 14%, and 10%, respectively [32][88]. - The gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 9.1% by 2026 [88]. 4. Business Segments - The express delivery segment is expected to maintain stable growth, while the courier business is projected to grow at a modest rate of 5% annually over the next three years [71][88]. - The company is also expanding its warehousing and supply chain services, with expected revenue growth of 20%, 15%, and 10% for the next three years [71]. 5. Market Position and Strategy - The integration with JD Logistics is anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and service delivery, contributing to revenue growth from the logistics services provided to JD [15][70]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its cost structure while enhancing service quality to maintain competitiveness in the market [31][62].