Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the recent short-term adjustments in commodity prices do not alter the long-term upward trend, suggesting potential re-entry opportunities in bulk metals [2]. - It notes that the performance of precious metals has been strong during price increases, while copper mining companies have shown decent results despite losses in smelting due to significantly reduced processing fees [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of financial attributes supporting commodity prices, indicating limited room for further price declines [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for April was below expectations, with only 175,000 jobs added, marking the lowest since October 2023, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% [8]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 5.25%-5.5% aligns with market expectations, with dovish comments from Powell supporting commodity prices [8]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the Shenyin Wanguo non-ferrous metals index fell by 1.34%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.87 percentage points, ranking 28th among all sectors [12]. - The top five performing stocks in the non-ferrous sector included Jixiang Co., Electric Power Investment Energy, and Hongchuang Holdings, while the worst performers were Zhongfu Industrial and Xiaocheng Technology [12]. Valuation Changes - The report states that the PE_TTM for the non-ferrous metals sector is 20.48, reflecting a change of 1.44 from the previous week, while the PB_LF is 2.19, with a slight change of 0.01 [19][20]. - The non-ferrous metals sector's valuation is significantly higher than the overall A-share market, with a ratio of 120% for PE and 152% for PB compared to the broader market [19][20]. Precious Metals - The report notes a decline in gold prices, with London spot gold down 2.08% and Shanghai gold down 0.08%, while silver prices also fell [21]. - Recommendations for investment focus on companies such as Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Shandong Gold Mining, which have shown strong performance [2]. Copper Sector - The report indicates that London copper prices fell by 1.35%, while Shanghai copper prices increased by 1.70%, with a notable decrease in smelting fees to $3.4 per ton [29]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Zijin Mining and Tongling Nonferrous Metals for potential investment opportunities [2]. Aluminum Sector - The report highlights a 1.60% decline in London aluminum prices, while Shanghai aluminum prices rose by 0.54%, with a decrease in both London and Shanghai inventories [34]. - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China Aluminum and Tianshan Aluminum for investment [2]. Lead and Zinc Sector - The report notes a 1.64% decrease in London lead prices, while zinc prices increased by 2.03%, with processing fees remaining stable at 3,250 yuan per ton [40]. - The report suggests that mining companies are experiencing improved profitability, with mining margins rising to 8,398 yuan per ton [40].
有色金属,大宗金属周报:短调不改长期趋势,关注大宗金属再布局机会
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2024-05-08 04:05