电价上涨弥补来水偏估影响 成长性支撑长期投资价值

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huadian Power International Corporation (600025) [6] Core Views - The company's 2023 net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.638 billion yuan, a 5.58% YoY increase, meeting expectations [6] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.18 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 42.42% [6] - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.065 billion yuan, an 8.25% YoY increase, slightly exceeding expectations [6] - The company's electricity generation and grid-connected electricity volume decreased in 2023 due to low water levels in the Lancang River basin, but improved in the second half of the year [6] - The company's electricity price increased in 2023, with the hydropower grid-connected electricity price rising 4.25% YoY to 218.85 yuan/MWh [6] - The company's financial expenses decreased in 2023, with a 60 basis point reduction in financing costs to 3.07% [6] - The company is accelerating the construction of upstream power stations on the Lancang River and continues to contribute to power generation through new energy projects [6] - The company's new energy installed capacity reached 1.9281 million kilowatts by the end of 2023 [6] - The report raises the company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2025 to 8.652 billion yuan and 9.637 billion yuan, respectively, and adds a 2026 forecast of 10.134 billion yuan [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company's operating income in 2023 was 23.461 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.5% YoY [7] - The company's operating income in Q1 2024 was 4.420 billion yuan, a 3.6% YoY increase [7] - The company's gross profit margin in 2023 was 56.4%, and it is expected to increase to 58.2% in 2024 [7] - The company's ROE in 2023 was 11.3%, and it is expected to increase to 14.6% in 2024 [7] - The company's P/E ratio in 2023 was 23, and it is expected to decrease to 20 in 2024 [7] Company Commentary - The company's operating income in 2023 was 23.461 billion yuan, slightly lower than the 23.581 billion yuan in 2022 [8] - The company's operating costs in 2023 were 10.238 billion yuan, a decrease from 10.444 billion yuan in 2022 [8] - The company's financial expenses in 2023 were 2.730 billion yuan, a decrease from 3.180 billion yuan in 2022 [8] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders in 2023 was 7.638 billion yuan, an increase from 7.234 billion yuan in 2022 [8] - The company's EPS in 2023 was 0.40 yuan, an increase from 0.37 yuan in 2022 [8]