受益于铜价上涨，2024Q1盈利能力提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 4.87 CNY per share [6][8]. Core Insights - The company benefited from rising copper prices, leading to improved profitability in Q1 2024, with a net profit of 1.097 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7.39% [5][6]. - The company reported a total revenue of 137.45 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year growth of 12.81%, although the net profit decreased by 35.49% to 2.699 billion CNY [2][6]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company produced 1.7563 million tons of cathode copper, a year-on-year increase of 7.83%, accounting for 13.52% of the domestic total production [3]. - The company plans to produce 1.73 million tons of cathode copper in 2024, alongside other production targets for various metals [3][4]. - The company’s self-sufficient copper concentrate production increased significantly by 239.34% in 2023, reaching 175,100 tons [4]. Profitability and Forecast - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2024-2026 to be 3.974 billion CNY, 4.349 billion CNY, and 4.658 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.31 CNY, 0.34 CNY, and 0.37 CNY [6][11]. - The company’s sales gross margin and net margin for Q1 2024 were reported at 8.32% and 4.19%, respectively, both showing year-on-year improvements [5][6]. Market Conditions - Global supply disruptions in copper mining are expected to widen the supply-demand gap in 2024, supporting an upward trend in copper prices [5]. - As of April 30, 2024, the LME copper futures price was 10,071 USD per ton, reflecting a 17.9% increase since the beginning of the year [5].