JINNENG(SH:603113) Guoxin Securities·2024-05-08 09:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [12][32] Core Insights - The company's performance in 2023 was negatively impacted by a decline in product prices, leading to a total revenue of 14.58 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 140 million yuan, down 44.9% [5][12] - In Q4 2023, the company saw a significant recovery with a revenue of 3.67 billion yuan, up 36.0% quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit of 130 million yuan, reflecting a remarkable increase of 1318.3% [5][12] - The decline in performance was primarily due to the price drop of key products like coke and potassium sorbate, which outpaced the decrease in raw material prices [12][30] - The company is expected to benefit from new projects coming online, including the Qingdao New Materials and Hydrogen Energy Comprehensive Utilization Phase II project, which is anticipated to enhance product scale efficiency and circular economy advantages by June 2024 [8][12] Financial Forecasts and Metrics - The company forecasts revenues of 18.76 billion yuan in 2024, 22.24 billion yuan in 2025, and 23.15 billion yuan in 2026, with respective growth rates of 28.6%, 18.6%, and 4.1% [2][12] - Net profit is projected to recover to 332 million yuan in 2024, 516 million yuan in 2025, and 683 million yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 141.8%, 55.2%, and 32.3% respectively [2][12] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.16 yuan in 2023 to 0.39 yuan in 2024, 0.61 yuan in 2025, and 0.80 yuan in 2026 [2][12] - The company's EBIT margin is projected to improve from 0.7% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024, 3.2% in 2025, and 3.8% in 2026 [2][12] Product Performance - In 2023, the company sold 823,000 tons of olefin products, with a sales price of 6,228.3 yuan per ton, down 10.1% year-on-year [12][30] - The sales volume of carbon black products was 647,000 tons, with a price of 7,461.8 yuan per ton, down 9.9% [12][30] - The sales volume of coke products reached 1,985,000 tons, with a significant price drop of 20.1% to 1,775.2 yuan per ton [12][30] - In Q1 2024, the company reported a sales volume of 181,000 tons of olefin products, with a price of 6,393.7 yuan per ton, reflecting a 5.4% decrease [12][30]