Dongxing Securities·2024-05-08 09:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Postal Savings Bank of China (601658.SH) [6][12]. Core Views - Postal Savings Bank achieved a revenue of 89.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 25.93 billion, a decrease of 1.3% year-on-year [1]. - The bank's revenue and net profit growth rates outperformed the average of state-owned banks, which saw declines of 2.2% and 2.03% respectively [1]. - The bank's net interest margin (NIM) for Q1 2024 was 1.92%, with a year-on-year decline of 17 basis points, which is less than the average decline of 22 basis points among state-owned banks [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue and net profit growth were 1.4% and -1.3% respectively, with a year-on-year return on equity (ROE) of 12.36%, down 2.01 percentage points [1]. - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 0.84% at the end of Q1, with a provision coverage ratio of 326.9% [1][2]. Loan and Deposit Growth - As of the end of Q1, loans increased by 4.6% year-to-date and 11.8% year-on-year, while deposits grew by 4.8% year-to-date and 10.5% year-on-year [1][9]. - The structure of loans improved, with corporate loans increasing by 8.3% year-to-date and personal loans by 3.8% [1]. Interest Margin and Cost - The bank's NIM was 1.92%, with a decline of 9 basis points compared to the previous year [2][9]. - The bank is expected to see a faster improvement in deposit costs due to a higher proportion of deposits maturing within one year [2]. Asset Quality - The overall asset quality remained stable, with a marginal decrease in the NPL generation rate to 0.81% for Q1 2024, down 4 basis points from the previous year [2]. - The bank's provision coverage ratio remains strong compared to its peers, indicating a robust buffer against potential loan losses [2]. Growth Outlook - The report forecasts net profit growth rates of 0.9%, 3.5%, and 4.1% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding book value per share (BVPS) estimates of 8.53, 9.17, and 9.83 yuan [6][12].