Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [15]. Core Views - The company shows signs of profit recovery, with Q1 2024 gross margin and net margin at 10.48% and 3.30%, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 0.21 and 0.51 percentage points [2]. - The positive market recovery during the Spring Festival and improved feedback post-holiday indicate a favorable sales environment, particularly with the price adjustments from major brands like Wuliangye [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing efficiency and quality, with sales and management expense ratios at historical lows of 4.67% and 1.10%, respectively, due to management improvements and team optimization [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from its established consumer trust and brand influence, particularly in premium and proprietary brands, which are anticipated to drive a positive cycle [18]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 10,121 million in 2023 to 11,133 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 10% [4]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 235 million in 2023 to 284 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.7% [4]. - The company's EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.56 in 2023 to 0.68 in 2024, with corresponding P/E ratios of 31.6x and 26.2x [4][18]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 6.2% in 2023 to 7.0% in 2024 [4].
利润端改善初现，积极信号有待持续验证