XINXIANG CHEMICAL(SZ:000949) Zhongyuan Securities·2024-05-09 02:30Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next six months [18][27]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the upward trend in the viscose filament industry, driven by increasing domestic demand for traditional Chinese clothing and the recovery of the viscose filament prices [2][27]. - The company's first-quarter performance showed significant improvement, with a net profit of 0.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 257% [18][27]. - The report highlights the potential for margin recovery in the spandex business, which has been under pressure but is expected to improve due to reduced raw material costs and stable demand [11][27]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 19.67 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.91% [18][19]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 and 2025 are 0.29 yuan and 0.37 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16.56 and 12.69 [27][31]. - The financial forecasts indicate a recovery in net profit, with estimates of 419 million yuan in 2024 and 547 million yuan in 2025, reflecting significant growth from a loss of 42 million yuan in 2023 [19][31]. Industry Overview - The viscose filament industry is experiencing a recovery phase, with demand driven by the rise of traditional Chinese fashion and a tightening supply situation [2][11]. - The report notes that the company holds a leading position in the viscose filament market, with a production capacity that accounts for approximately 40% of the national total [18][27]. - The spandex market is currently at a low point but is expected to see marginal improvements as supply constraints and demand stabilize [11][27].