2023年报及2024年一季报点评：一季度沙坦业务明显企稳，有望进入新一轮成长周期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Tianyu Co., Ltd. (300702) [1] Core Views - The company's raw material drug business is expected to enter a mid-term growth cycle, driven by the recovery of the Sartans business and the release of new products [1] - In 2023, the company's revenue from generic drug raw materials was 2.005 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 14.69%, while the gross margin increased by 12.01 percentage points to 34.41% [1] - The non-Sartan raw material drug business saw rapid growth, with sales revenue of 206 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 45.53% [1] - The CDMO business performed better than expected, achieving revenue of 406 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 54.20% [1] - The company's formulation revenue reached 105 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 209.2%, indicating a strong growth potential [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, total revenue was 2.527 billion yuan, down 5.23% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 27 million yuan, up 123.02% [10] - For Q1 2024, revenue was 689 million yuan, down 11.29% year-on-year, with a net profit of 41 million yuan, down 59.58% [10] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 299 million, 390 million, and 495 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 991.4%, 30.5%, and 27.1% respectively [1][11] Business Segments - The Sartan business is stabilizing and expected to enter a recovery phase, with a significant increase in sales volume in Q1 2024 [1] - The company has a rich pipeline of projects in the CDMO sector, with 20 ongoing projects as of the end of 2023 [1] - The formulation segment is expected to become an important profit pillar, with 13 formulation products approved for production in 2023 [1] Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 25.7 yuan, based on a 30x PE ratio for 2024 [1]