Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 7.80, indicating a potential upside of 55.07% from the closing price of HKD 5.00 on April 25, 2024 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong performance in Q1 2024, with revenue of CNY 653.67 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.15%, and a net profit of CNY 45.96 billion, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 104.25% [2]. - The decline in fuel costs has been a major driver for the increase in profitability, particularly in the coal and wind power sectors, which contributed profits of CNY 28.25 billion and CNY 24.14 billion, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 4151.44% and 25.41% [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from a more relaxed coal supply-demand balance in 2024, leading to further reductions in fuel costs and enhanced profitability [2]. - The company's domestic power generation capacity is projected to reach 4850 billion kWh in 2024, with a 5.63% year-on-year increase in Q1 [2]. - The report highlights the implementation of a two-part pricing mechanism for coal power, which is anticipated to improve cash flow and profitability for the company [3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2023 to 2026, the company’s revenue is forecasted to grow from CNY 254,396.70 million in 2023 to CNY 276,074.44 million in 2026, with growth rates of 3.11%, 4.04%, 2.18%, and 2.08% respectively [1][5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase significantly from CNY 8,357.46 million in 2023 to CNY 16,828.72 million in 2026, with growth rates of 204.13%, 60.57%, 13.13%, and 10.85% [1][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from -0.51 in 2023 to 1.18 in 2026, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [1][5]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 8.70 in 2023 to 4.32 in 2026, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings improve [1][5].
业绩增长强劲，燃料成本持续回落