COSCO SHIP HOLD(601919) 西南证券·2024-05-09 07:30Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) with a target price of 15.4 RMB (6 months) [1] Core Views - The container shipping market is returning to normal, and the company has demonstrated operational resilience [2] - The company's effective capacity growth is slower than the actual delivery of new ships, and market capacity is controllable [3] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 24.57 billion, 23.96 billion, and 25.05 billion RMB in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with EPS of 1.54, 1.50, and 1.57 RMB [3] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 175.45 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 55.1%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 23.86 billion RMB, with a net profit margin of 13.6% [2] - In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 48.27 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.76 billion RMB, with a net profit margin of 14% [2] - The company's operating cost in 2023 decreased by 32.7% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin was 16.4%, a decrease of 27.9 percentage points compared to 2022 [14] Operational Highlights - The company's self-operated fleet size reached 510 ships/31.06 million TEUs as of March 31, 2024, an increase of 2.1% from the beginning of the year, maintaining its position in the industry's first tier [2] - The average age of the fleet is 13.1 years, and the average capacity per ship is 6,090 TEUs, an increase of 0.5% from the beginning of the year [2] - The company operates 283 international routes, 53 domestic coastal routes, and 84 Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River branch routes, serving 599 ports in 144 countries and regions [12] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.23 RMB per share for the 2023 final dividend, totaling approximately 3.67 billion RMB [2] - Including the interim dividend of 8.2 billion RMB, the total cash dividend for 2023 is approximately 11.87 billion RMB, accounting for 50% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [2] Industry and Market Analysis - The Red Sea incident has increased transportation distances, leading to higher demand for container shipping [2] - Stricter environmental policies will affect the speed of older and non-environmentally friendly ships, resulting in slower growth of effective capacity compared to actual capacity [2] - The company's container shipping business accounted for 94.2% of total revenue in 2023, with a gross profit of 25.56 billion RMB and a gross profit margin of 15.2% [8] Valuation and Forecast - The company's PE ratio for 2024/25/26 is estimated at 8x, with a target PE of 10x for 2024, corresponding to a target price of 15.4 RMB [3] - The company's revenue is expected to grow by 13.5% in 2024, decrease by 0.9% in 2025, and increase by 1.4% in 2026 [17] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 18%, 17.7%, and 18.3% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [17]