Zoomlion(01157)2024-05-09 07:32Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for Zoomlion Heavy Industry (1157 HK) with an expected return of over 10% in the next 12 months [9]. Core Views - The company is entering a strong profit growth phase driven by globalization and product innovation, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 67% in overseas revenue over the past three years [2]. - The outlook for the company remains positive, with expectations of a 22% profit CAGR from 2024 to 2026 [2]. - The initial target price is set at HKD 6.90, based on a forecasted earnings per share (EPS) of HKD 0.57 for 2024 and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11 times [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue (in million RMB): - 2022: 41,631 - 2023: 47,075 - 2024F: 56,593 (20.2% YoY growth) - 2025F: 64,192 (13.4% YoY growth) - 2026F: 73,089 (13.9% YoY growth) [3] - Net Profit (in million RMB): - 2022: 2,306 - 2023: 3,506 - 2024F: 4,722 (34.7% YoY growth) - 2025F: 5,608 (18.8% YoY growth) - 2026F: 6,422 (14.5% YoY growth) [3] - Diluted EPS (in RMB): - 2022: 0.27 - 2023: 0.42 - 2024F: 0.57 (34.7% YoY growth) - 2025F: 0.68 (18.8% YoY growth) - 2026F: 0.78 (14.5% YoY growth) [3] - Dividend (in RMB): - 2024F: 0.33 - 2025F: 0.39 - 2026F: 0.44 [3] Market Performance - The stock has shown strong performance with a 12-month expected return of 18% [6]. - Absolute performance over the last 12 months is 40%, outperforming the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 52% [8].