CSI Solar(SH:688472) Haitong Securities·2024-05-09 08:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][14]. Core Views - The company achieved significant profit growth in Q1 2024, with a revenue of 51.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.94%, and a net profit of 2.903 billion yuan, up 34.61% year-on-year. However, Q1 2024 revenue was 9.597 billion yuan, down 18.88% year-on-year but up 815.43% quarter-on-quarter [5][6]. - The company has a high proportion of overseas shipments in its photovoltaic components, particularly in North America, which accounted for over 20% of total shipments in Q1 2024. The company is leveraging its advanced N-type production capacity to enhance competitiveness [5][6]. - The energy storage business is expected to ramp up significantly, with a confirmed revenue of 1 GWh in Q1 2024 and a backlog of orders worth 2.6 billion USD as of the end of 2023 [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a total revenue of 51.31 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.903 billion yuan. For 2024, projected revenues are 59.53 billion yuan, with net profits expected to reach 3.327 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 14.6% [7][10]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 16.0% in 2024, with net profit growth rates of 14.6%, 21.9%, and 25.9% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7][10]. Business Segments - Photovoltaic Components: Expected revenue for 2024 is 43.549 billion yuan, with a projected gross margin of 13.47% [8][9]. - Large-scale Energy Storage Systems: Anticipated revenue for 2024 is 7.730 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 17.73% [8][9]. - Photovoltaic Systems: Expected revenue growth of 15% with a gross margin of 5% [8][9]. - Construction Contracts: Projected revenue growth of 30% with a gross margin of 15% [8][9]. Valuation - The company is assigned a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17-19 for 2024, leading to a fair value range of 15.34 to 17.14 yuan per share [6][10].