YTO(SH:600233)2024-05-09 11:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Outperform" for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue growth of 7.7% year-on-year to RMB 57.68 billion in 2023, with a decline in net profit of 5.0% to RMB 3.72 billion due to market pressures on air and freight forwarding businesses [4] - In Q1 2024, total revenue increased by 19.5% year-on-year to RMB 15.43 billion, and net profit grew by 4.1% to RMB 0.94 billion, indicating a stable outlook for air freight and international business [4] - The company achieved a significant increase in express delivery volume, with 21.2 billion parcels delivered in 2023, a 21.3% increase, and 5.57 billion parcels in Q1 2024, a 24.9% increase [4] - Core costs have been decreasing, with a reduction in per parcel transportation costs and operational costs, enhancing service quality and customer experience [4] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue of RMB 63.75 billion for 2024 and RMB 71.01 billion for 2025, with net profit expected to be RMB 4.26 billion and RMB 4.86 billion respectively [3][5] - The projected net profit growth rates are 14.5% for 2024, 14.1% for 2025, and 13.1% for 2026 [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from RMB 1.08 in 2023 to RMB 1.24 in 2024, with a consistent growth trajectory [3][5] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a cash position and no net debt, indicating financial stability [8]