抖音退货又切换快递了。 12月16日起，京东物流、中通、圆通、邮政、韵达等多家快递公司，将在不同地区承担其退货业务。 数据显示，抖音电商日均退货量达数百万单，对于急需散单的快递企业来说，这是一块不小的市场蛋糕。面对逆向快递最大来源平台之一，各 大快递此次异常重视抖退业务，竞争也十分激烈。 对于新加入的快递企业而言，想要对标此前顺丰抖音退货"5分钟响应、一小时内核销取件码、当日发出"的服务标准，几乎难上加难。 01 亿豹网发现，在反内卷的大背景下，快递公司抢着做退货生意，核心就一个原因：这钱比正向件好赚多了。总部揽收一个电商件，利润为几分钱，有时甚 至亏钱，但揽收一个退货件，运费尽管一降再降，目前各个平台也有四五元左右，这种高附加值的业务，自然成了香饽饽。 此外，做好退货服务，能直接提升消费者体验，增强用户对快递品牌的粘性。像顺丰、京东物流都推出了专门的"网购退货"入口，还提供折扣和优惠，就 是为了在这个领域建立优势。 有数据显示，目前全国日均退货业务量超2000万件。在传统电商渠道增速放缓的情况下，退货业务作为一个新的增长点，能快速帮助快递公司开拓市场， 缓解业绩压力。 02 亿豹网了解到，抖音电商为提升用户 ...

财通证券研报指出，圆通速递积极求变，造就行业头部地位。市占率持续提升，反内卷下2025Q3业绩 重回增长。规模效应+数字化管理共同推动公司单票成本持续下行，2025H1 公司单票核心成本与龙头 接近。人工智能升级对于公司运输端智能路由规划降本、揽派端末端履约效率提升、营销端客户需求服 务提升、加盟端运营健康发展、最终在成本控制和溢价能力的提升均有推动，看好长期人工智能发展下 公司全网竞争力提升。首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 ...

Economic News - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third rate cut since 2025 [1] - Vietnam's National Assembly amended the mineral law to prohibit the export of rare earth ores starting January 1, 2026, emphasizing strict control over exploration and processing [1] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security held a seminar in collaboration with the International Labour Organization [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the importance of pilot innovation in manufacturing as a key link connecting innovation, technology, and industry [1] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to enhance policy support for the retail industry's innovation and transformation during the 15th Five-Year Plan period [1] - The Ministry of Commerce will work with local governments to implement policies to stabilize foreign trade and promote market diversification [1] - The China Textile Import and Export Chamber reported that yarn and fabric exports reached $69.18 billion from January to October 2025, a 2.1% year-on-year increase [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue special government bonds due in 2025, with a total face value of CNY 400 billion for the first phase and CNY 350 billion for the second phase [1] - The National Internet Information Office is conducting a special campaign to rectify online chaos in the automotive industry [1] - The Ministry of Education reported an increase in the number of students returning from studying abroad, with 495,000 expected to return in 2024, a 19.1% increase from 2023 [1] Company News - Pop Mart announced changes in its board of directors, with new appointments effective December 10, 2025 [4] - Kweichow Moutai announced a cash dividend of CNY 23.957 per share, totaling CNY 30 billion, with the ex-dividend date on December 19 [4] - Nanjing Highway plans to invest up to CNY 9.033 billion in the construction of the Nanyang Yangtze River Bridge southern connection project [4] - ZTE Corporation is in communication with the U.S. Department of Justice regarding compliance investigations related to the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act [4] - Oracle reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $16.1 billion, a 14% year-on-year increase, with cloud revenue of $8 billion, a 34% increase, but below market expectations [4] Transportation Industry - The transportation sector has shown signs of recovery, with the strong cycle sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies [5] - The focus for 2026 will remain on sectors benefiting from anti-involution and high certainty stocks, with a long-term impact expected from these policies [6] - The express delivery industry has seen a recovery in profitability, with rising prices and a reduction in low-price competition [7] - The airline sector has improved performance due to lower oil prices and better management of ticket pricing, with a cautious approach to aircraft procurement expected to continue [8] - The highway sector has experienced significant stock price adjustments, with a focus on high dividend yield and low debt ratio companies expected to gain more attention [9]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that domestic demand is recovering ahead of external demand, with a focus on low base effects in 2026, making bottomed-out sectors worth attention [3] - It highlights that upstream sectors are recovering before downstream sectors, with significant demand elasticity expected in early 2026, particularly in bulk supply chains and dry bulk shipping [3] - The report notes that price increases are anticipated before volume growth, with a focus on dry bulk shipping, e-commerce logistics, and airlines benefiting from supply constraints and favorable oil exchange rates [3] Industry Overview - The transportation sector ranked 29th in the market as of December 10, 2025, reflecting significant pressure on fundamentals, with a -1% performance in the Shenwan primary transportation index [18][19] - The report identifies structural opportunities in logistics and shipping, despite the overall economic cycle affecting the sector [20] - It indicates that the transportation sector's performance is closely tied to economic fundamentals, with a notable correlation between ROE and economic cycles [23] Sub-industry Analysis - In logistics, domestic demand is stabilizing while external trade remains robust, with expectations of price increases due to anti-involution policies [11][20] - The airline sector is experiencing improvements in supply and demand, with a focus on capturing opportunities in private airlines and airport duty-free consumption recovery [11][20] - The shipping sector, particularly dry bulk shipping, is highlighted as a cost-effective opportunity for 2026, driven by supply and demand dynamics [11][20] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a strategy of seeking alpha within beta, focusing on sectors with low beta characteristics that are expected to turn around in 2026 [11][20] - It emphasizes the importance of identifying individual stocks within the transportation sector that can outperform the broader market, given the anticipated recovery in demand [11][20] - The report outlines a cautious but optimistic outlook for 2026, with a focus on sectors that have shown resilience and potential for recovery [11][20]

在我们生活的每一个角落，总有党员的身影默默闪现。他们是先锋、是旗帜，是温暖人心的力量源泉。 基层治理，他们化解难题；乡村振兴，他们扎根奉献；产业发展，他们带头探索；科技创新，他们勇攀 高峰……即日起，长沙晚报推出"党代表在身边"专栏，讲述基层党代表联系服务党员和群众、履行代表 职责等方面的鲜活故事，凝聚起围绕中心服务大局、立足岗位创先争优的共识和力量。 长沙晚报全媒体记者 刘捷萍 "操控杆要稳，视线既要盯紧无人机，也要关注航线周边环境。"近日，党的二十大代表、圆通速递长沙 市高桥分公司营运部经理马石光刚拿到中型超视距无人机操控员执照，便与同事分享实操心得。这张执 照，既是他个人技能的突破，更承载着探索低空经济赋能快递业的新思考。 从日均上门派送400多件包裹的快递员，到管理日处理1.7万件快件营运部的经理，再到为国家"十五 五"规划建言的党代表，马石光深耕快递业22年，始终以"桥梁"姿态连接党与基层、个人与行业。考无 人机操控员执照，正是他锚定行业未来的又一次探索。 编者按 在推动行业发展的道路上，马石光的脚步从未停歇。在省"十五五"规划建议座谈会上，他提出的推动快 递行业与制造业"两业融合"的建议得到肯定。 ...

Investment Summary - The transportation industry has shown a significant underperformance compared to the broader market, ranking among the lowest in terms of growth within the Shenwan primary industry indices as of December 8, 2025 [15][16] - The implementation of anti-involution policies has positively impacted the fundamentals of certain segments within the transportation sector, particularly benefiting the aviation and express delivery sectors [26][30] 2026 Outlook - The focus for 2026 remains on sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies and high-certainty stocks, with a long-term impact expected from these policies on stock price movements [5][34] - Key sectors to watch include aviation, express delivery, and regional shipping, while high-dividend and low-debt companies are expected to attract more investor interest in weaker cyclical areas [5][34] Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery industry has seen a recovery in profitability driven by rising single-package prices, with major companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express showing significant improvements [6][35] - The trend of price competition has been curtailed, leading to a decrease in package volume growth as companies focus on maintaining service quality and profitability [6][38] - The competitive strategies among companies have diverged, with YTO and Shentong performing strongly, while Yunda has struggled with profitability and market share [42][53] Aviation Sector - The aviation sector has experienced a notable improvement in performance since Q2 2025, with major airlines reporting increased profitability compared to the previous year [63][64] - The focus for 2026 will be on the transition from high passenger load factors to higher ticket prices, supported by controlled supply and strong demand [69][87] - Major airlines are expected to maintain cautious procurement strategies, with a projected fleet growth of around 5% in 2026 [69][80] Highway Sector - The highway sector has faced significant adjustments in stock prices, leading to a more rational market approach towards high-dividend investments [8][4.1] - Following substantial adjustments, the attractiveness of highway stocks has improved, with a focus on companies with high dividend ratios and low debt levels [8][4.3]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002800 | 天顺股份 | 14.92 | -3.12% | 5.25万 | - 7887.17万 | | 603836 | 海程邦达 | 14.46 | -2.03% | 5.97万 | 8707.22万 | | 002889 | 东方嘉盛 | 16.15 | -2.00% | 9.89万 | 1.60亿 | | 300240 | 飞力达 | 7.54 | -1.57% | 7.37万 | 5583.80万 | | 603117 | 万林物流 | 5.06 | -1.56% | 6.81万 | 3451.79万 | | 603329 | 上海雅仕 | 11.22 | -1.49% | 2.33万 | 2624.10万 | | 300013 | 新宁物流 | 4.19 | -1.41% | 20.58万 | 8694.68万 | | 603871 | 嘉友国际 | 12.51 | -1.26% | 8.23万 | 1.03亿 | | 60005 ...

每经记者｜赵雯琪 实习记者 郑欣蔚 每经编辑｜余婷婷 "我买的甘肃羊肉，不是应该从兰州直接空运过来吗？怎么飞到南京去了？" 最近，四川成都的梁先生有些困惑——甘肃羊肉发成都，为何要在南京"打一头"（四川方言，意为"短 暂停留、去一下就走"）。今年"双11"，他在某电商平台购买了两公斤羊肉，当他查询物流信息时发 现，这份从兰州发出的快件，行进轨迹诡异得像个"恶作剧"——它没有南下直奔600多公里外的成都， 而是先调头向东，跨越超过1500公里，降落在了南京禄口国际机场；随后再次起飞折返向西，又飞越 1400多公里到达成都，行进轨迹可谓"南辕东辙"。 "快递是迷路了吗？"在"点对点"直达触手可及的今天，这些高时效性快递为会选择"绕弯路"？是系统失 误，还是资源错配？ 诡异的航程：直飞600多公里，却要绕行超2900公里 梁先生下单时间是11月10日，考虑到保鲜效果，他选择了价格更高的航空物流。 "EMS中国邮政快递"微信服务号的"邮政轨迹"信息显示，11月10日当天19时29分接收到快件，半小时 后，在兰州市兰工坪揽投部完成分拣并发往甘肃省寄递事业部航空包件车间；快件23时56分搭乘邮航专 机从兰州中川机场飞往南 ...

智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，当前市值相较26年业绩性价比较高，关注26年业绩增长驱动 的估值修复机会。25年前10月快递业务量增长17.2%，其中10月同比+7.9%，从高频揽投数据来看，预 计11月增速略有回升。"反内卷"推动行业价格、盈利及估值修复：7 月以来邮政局多次召开"反内卷"相 关会议;8月以来大部分地区完成首轮价格上涨，涨幅0.2-0.4元，10月广东等局部地区价格二次上涨，涨 幅0.1-0.2元，旺季价格修复基本完成，有望推动Q4行业盈利同比大幅增长。从26年全年来看，盈利增 长趋势较为明确，当前市值相较26年业绩性价比较高，建议关注26年业绩增长驱动的估值修复机会。 招商证券主要观点如下： 上市快递公司核心数据 1)业务量增速分化，顺丰受益积极的业务开拓、增速领先行业，2025年10月顺丰/圆通/韵达/申通分别完 成快递业务量15.2/27.9/21.4/22.7亿票，同比变化分别为+26.3%/+12.8%/-5.1%/+4.0%;2)韵达申通单票价 格持续回升、顺丰受结构下沉影响同比依然承压，10月顺丰/圆通/韵达/申通单票收入分别为 13.18/2.23/2.11/2.18 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨运输 [Table_Title] 快递降速龙头回归，文旅民航融合发展 ——交运周专题 2025W49 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周，快递、航空、海运板块均迎来积极变化：1）快递受益"反内卷"，快递单价如期修复。 在价格之外，电商降速提质高质量发展，龙头快递份额加速提升，格局重回分化，看好龙头公 司中通快递、圆通速递。2）文化和旅游部、中国民航局发布关于印发《文化和旅游与民航业融 合发展行动方案》的通知，重点提出优化银发旅游适老化无障碍出行环境，提升国内旅游出行 通达性，加密入境旅游航线等方针，有望持续提振航空出行需求。3）海运方面，赫伯罗特拟收 购以星。从时机上看，集运景气承压，以星市值大幅回落，行业收并购窗口或打开。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490520080027 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_Ti ...