Donghai Securities·2024-05-09 12:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [9] Core Views - The company has shown a slight slowdown in credit growth, with total assets increasing by 13.24% year-on-year to 47.6 trillion yuan as of the end of Q1, driven primarily by rapid growth in repurchase agreements [1][11] - Asset quality remains robust, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.36%, unchanged from the previous quarter, and a provision coverage ratio of 216.31%, reflecting an increase in provisioning efforts [2][11] - The company is expected to experience further slowdown in scale growth under a more balanced credit orientation, with net interest margin (NIM) anticipated to narrow but at a slower rate due to improved liability costs [3][27] Summary by Sections Credit Growth and Structure - As of the end of Q1, total loans (excluding accrued interest) grew by 11.60% year-on-year to 27.37 trillion yuan, indicating a slight decrease in growth rate compared to the previous quarter [1] - New corporate loans, personal loans, and bill discounts showed mixed results, with corporate loans slightly decreasing and personal loans increasing, reflecting ongoing consumer and housing demand [1][32] Asset Quality - The NPL ratio remains stable at 1.36%, with a provision coverage ratio of 216.31%, indicating strong asset quality management [2][11] - The company recorded a provision for asset impairment losses of 600.75 billion yuan in Q1, a year-on-year decrease of 7.61%, but the decline rate has narrowed compared to the second half of 2023 [2] Profitability Forecast - The company’s revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 8325, 8552, and 8992 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of -1.25%, 2.72%, and 5.15% [3][14] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 3648, 3727, and 3889 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 0.22%, 2.17%, and 4.35% [3][14] Interest Margin and Cost Management - The NIM for Q1 was reported at 1.48%, with a year-on-year decline of 22 basis points, but the rate of decline has significantly narrowed compared to previous quarters [27] - The company has managed to maintain a low cost-to-income ratio of 20.78%, reflecting effective cost control measures [2]