AIA(01299) 海通证券·2024-05-10 01:02Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for AIA Group [25][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant year-on-year increase in New Business Value (NBV) of 31%, reaching USD 1.33 billion, alongside a new USD 2 billion share buyback plan, increasing the total to USD 12 billion [10][25]. - AIA's NBV margin improved to 54.2%, up by 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in profitability [10][11]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from strong demand for savings products, particularly in the Chinese market, with a focus on the growth of its agency and bancassurance channels [10][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - AIA's insurance revenue for 2023 is projected at USD 17.514 billion, with a net profit of USD 3.764 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13% [13][40]. - The annualized new premium (ANP) is expected to reach USD 24.5 billion, marking a 26% increase [10]. Valuation Metrics - The report estimates a price-to-earnings value (PEV) of 1.29x for 2024, suggesting that the current valuation is low with a high margin of safety [12][16]. - AIA is projected to have a reasonable value range of HKD 82.97 to HKD 86.71 based on absolute valuation methods and comparable company valuations [12][29]. Growth Drivers - The report notes that AIA's new agent recruitment and active agent numbers have both increased by over 20%, indicating strong growth in its distribution channels [11]. - The company is expected to maintain high growth rates in the Chinese market and across ASEAN regions, driven by the development of new branches and strong sales performance [12][29].