5月月度策略：流动性驱动的“赔率交易”

Group 1 - The report indicates that the performance of major asset classes in April suggests a focus on the "reflexivity" of US financial conditions, with liquidity becoming a core pricing factor transitioning from fundamentals [2][14][19] - The report highlights that the strong expectations and realities of the overseas economy in the first quarter can be attributed to the continued easing of financial conditions, despite rising US Treasury yields and the dollar [2][14][32] - It is noted that excessive easing of financial conditions may hinder the potential for interest rate cuts, as historically, the Federal Reserve tends to lower rates when financial conditions tighten [2][19][32] Group 2 - The report anticipates that under the "liquidity spillover" effect, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are likely to benefit relatively, as their valuations remain low compared to overseas markets [21][23] - The report emphasizes that the domestic capital market is experiencing a trend of liquidity spillover, primarily due to a relatively loose monetary policy environment leading to a "scarcity of assets" [21][23] - It is suggested that macroeconomic data, including prices, is expected to improve year-on-year in the second quarter, which could enhance risk appetite in the A-share market [21][23] Group 3 - The report recommends a configuration strategy focusing on dividend and undervalued domestic demand products, suggesting that "external-oriented" varieties should be considered for entry during pullbacks [24][41] - Specific sectors and companies are highlighted for investment, including China Shenhua (coal), Ecovacs (home appliances), Changan Automobile, BYD (automobiles), Yunnan Aluminum (non-ferrous), Nuotai Bio (pharmaceuticals), Hailan Home (textiles), and Zhongju High-tech (food and beverage) [26][42] - The report indicates that the "scarcity of assets" logic supports the continued positive performance of dividend assets, while "odds trading" should focus on undervalued domestic demand products such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food and beverage [24][41]