宏观及大类资产月报：美国降息预期延后，国内经济“量升价跌”

Economic Overview - China's economy is characterized by "volume increase and price decrease," with Q1 GDP growth at 5.3%, exceeding the 4.6% market expectation, while the GDP deflator recorded -1.3%, indicating ongoing deflationary pressure[9] - Despite a recovery in consumer spending, per capita consumption has only returned to 88.5% of pre-pandemic levels, reflecting a trend of consumption downgrade and a focus on cost-effectiveness[9] Inflation and Monetary Policy - March CPI in the U.S. rose to 3.5%, above the expected 3.4%, with core CPI at 3.8%, leading to a delay in interest rate cut expectations until September[5] - The market is experiencing "re-inflation" sentiment, with the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rising following the CPI data release[5] Market Performance - In April, the domestic equity market showed mixed performance, with A-shares rising by 1.02% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 7.39%, while overseas markets faced declines due to delayed rate cut expectations[16] - The South China commodity index recorded a 5.83% increase in April, with black metals leading at 11.83% growth, while agricultural products fell by 2.20%[34] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market experienced volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 2.30%, reflecting a 1.27 basis point increase from March[70] - The central bank's net withdrawal of liquidity amounted to 550 billion yuan in April, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid economic uncertainties[46] Commodity Trends - Gold prices reached a peak of $2,400 per ounce before settling at $2,285.78, with a monthly increase of 2.32% driven by geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns[76] - Copper prices surged by 12.5% to $10,162 per ton, influenced by supply disruptions and strong demand expectations, despite signs of weakening downstream consumption[76]